ISLAMABAD, Nov 4 (Wealth Pakistan) — Pakistan’s external trade showed mixed performance during the first quarter of the fiscal year 2025-26. While exports posted a gradual recovery in September, rising month-on-month, imports expanded more sharply, widening the overall trade deficit.
Exports rise in September despite global slowdown
According to data released by the Ministry of Commerce, Pakistan’s exports in September 2025 stood at 2.5 billion dollars compared to 2.4 billion dollars in August, showing a month-on-month increase of 3.48 percent. In rupee terms, exports rose 3.04 percent to 703 billion rupees from 683 billion rupees in the previous month.
On a yearly basis, however, exports declined 11.85 percent from 2.8 billion dollars recorded in September 2024. For the first quarter (July–September) of FY26, exports reached 7.6 billion dollars, marking a mild contraction of 3.88 percent compared to 7.9 billion dollars in the same quarter of last fiscal year. In rupee terms, quarterly exports totalled 2,149 billion rupees, slightly lower than 2,200 billion rupees a year earlier.
Imports rebound on rising energy and machinery demand
Imports grew strongly during the same period, reflecting higher inflows of petroleum products, industrial machinery, and raw materials. Total imports in September 2025 reached 5.9 billion dollars, up 11.63 percent from 5.3 billion dollars in August. In rupee terms, imports rose 11.33 percent to 1,664 billion rupees from 1,495 billion rupees a month earlier.
Compared with September 2024, imports increased 15.16 percent in dollar terms and 16.49 percent in rupees, driven by higher global commodity prices and improved supply chain conditions. Cumulative imports for July–September 2025-26 stood at 17 billion dollars, up 13.88 percent from 14.9 billion dollars in the same period last year. In rupee terms, imports grew 15.57 percent year-on-year to 4,818 billion rupees from 4,169 billion rupees.
Trade deficit expands but remains within range
As a result, Pakistan’s trade deficit widened in September 2025 but stayed within a manageable range. The monthly trade gap increased to 3.4 billion dollars compared to 2.8 billion dollars in August, showing an 18.49 percent rise. In rupee terms, the deficit rose 18.30 percent to 960 billion rupees from 812 billion rupees.
On a year-on-year basis, the deficit expanded 48.58 percent in dollar terms and 50.16 percent in rupees compared to September 2024. For the first quarter, the trade deficit stood at 9.4 billion dollars, showing a 33.80 percent rise from 7 billion dollars in the same quarter of FY25. In rupee terms, the deficit widened 35.57 percent to 2,668 billion rupees from 1,968 billion rupees.
Officials see signs of external sector recovery
Officials noted that the recent uptick in exports, despite weak global demand and a stable exchange rate, highlights resilience in Pakistan’s external sector. They said import growth, mainly in petroleum and machinery, reflects improving industrial demand and gradual reactivation of economic activity.
“The narrowing quarterly export contraction and higher import volumes indicate normalisation in trade flows and an improving business environment,” said an official.
Although the deficit widened, analysts believe the broader increase in trade activity signals renewed momentum in the external sector. The export-to-import ratio, which stood at 42.3 percent in September 2025 compared to 45.7 percent in August, shows room for improvement but confirms steady export engagement as the fiscal year advances.