ISLAMABAD, Oct 28 (Wealth Pakistan) – Pakistan is preparing to sow its key Rabi (winter) crops for the 2025–26 season amid mixed conditions — healthy soil moisture from an above-average monsoon paired with forecasts of drier winter months ahead.
According to an official document available with Wealth Pakistan, the Rabi season will begin on a positive note with sufficient soil moisture for crops such as wheat, barley, and pulses. However, concerns are rising over expected below-normal rainfall in several parts of the country between October and December.
Favourable soil moisture but drier outlook ahead
The report noted that this year’s strong monsoon rainfall had left “reasonable soil moisture” across most agricultural regions, supporting early sowing. However, it warned that the upcoming months could bring soil moisture stress in upper rainfed and hilly areas due to an expected decline in precipitation.
Meteorological projections for October–December 2025 show normal to below-normal rainfall in most parts of the country. Punjab is likely to experience normal to slightly below-normal precipitation, although October may bring near-normal or slightly above-normal rains.
Sindh, meanwhile, is forecast to receive normal to slightly above-normal rainfall, while Balochistan may record near to slightly below-normal levels. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Gilgit-Baltistan, and Azad Jammu and Kashmir are expected to see the most significant shortfall, with mostly below-normal rains predicted during the three-month period.
Irrigation water sufficient but careful use urged
Despite the possibility of a drier spell in northern regions, the report projects adequate irrigation water availability nationwide during the Rabi season. Still, it urged careful water management, particularly in southern Pakistan, where drier conditions could challenge farmers.
The document also indicated that above-normal temperatures are expected across much of the country, particularly in upper Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Gilgit-Baltistan, and AJK. Central and southern plains of Punjab, Sindh, and adjoining Balochistan are likely to experience near-normal conditions.
Mean temperatures during September remained around one degree Celsius above normal across all provinces, marking a continuation of the warming trend observed in recent months.
Monsoon performance boosts Rabi potential
Between July and September 2025, Pakistan received 24.5 percent more rainfall than the long-term average, setting a favourable stage for the Rabi season. Punjab led all provinces with 36 percent above-normal rainfall, followed by Sindh, Balochistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, AJK, and Gilgit-Baltistan.
During the first 23 days of September alone, the country saw rainfall 70 percent above normal, with Sindh experiencing the highest surplus, followed by Punjab and Balochistan. However, KP, AJK, and GB recorded below-average rains during the same period.
Experts say this strong monsoon base will benefit early sowing, particularly in irrigated zones, but continued vigilance is necessary as climate variability may still impact late-season crops.
Steady improvement in irrigation releases
The document shows steady growth in irrigation water releases to the provinces during recent Rabi seasons. Total releases rose from 27.423 million-acre feet (MAF) in 2022–23 to 29.374 MAF in 2023–24 and 30.592 MAF in 2024–25.
However, water supply during the Kharif seasons showed sharper fluctuations. Releases stood at 65.082 MAF in 2022, dropped to 43.268 MAF in 2023, and rebounded to 61.851 MAF in 2024, reflecting changing rainfall patterns and inflows in major reservoirs.
Water experts note that sustained coordination among federal and provincial irrigation bodies will be essential to ensure efficient water distribution as Rabi sowing intensifies.
Outlook: cautious optimism for Rabi season
Officials and analysts remain cautiously optimistic. Strong soil moisture and improved irrigation reserves offer a good foundation for sowing, but reduced rainfall could affect crop performance in rainfed areas if dry conditions persist.
With wheat — Pakistan’s main Rabi crop — crucial for food security, authorities are expected to closely monitor precipitation, temperature, and water distribution trends to safeguard yields and ensure timely support for farmers.